Better in their words…

I don’t always agree with Barnes, but he’s a pretty shrewd student of politics. If you disagree with his take, he usually requires you to think hard about why you disagree. So here’s his five point take. See what you think. Barnes makes two points that I want to comment on in particular, and they both have to do with the wave of political populism.

First, Barnes maintains that the Blue Wave was driven heavily by populism. I believe he’s correct on that score. On the one hand, that means that New Trump voters felt betrayed by Trump’s denialism regarding the plight of the middle class. On the other hand, that means that Establishment Dems—who are just as must owned by Big Money and by Jewish Nationalists—have no grounds for complacency with regard to the midterms. The Dems didn’t win back the trust of the New Trump voters—they simply benefited from New Trump disillusion. Closing the deal for 2026 won’t be a cinch, because the likelihood is that the economy could get even dicier in the coming months.

The second point is closely related. Barnes believes that Trump can “salvage 2026”. I’m not as sanguine as Barnes. Trump, in my mind, has spent his entire first year rebranding himself from an outsider and a populist to an insider who welches on campaign promises, delights in rubbing our noses in how much money it takes to buy him off, sides with the Jewish Nationalist elite over ordinary Americans, protects Jewish Nationalist spies (Epstein), delights in bullying and killing people, is preoccupied with vanity projects (ballrooms), and prefers hobnobbing with the rich and famous at garish parties and enriching his family through shady deals. In a worsening economic environment, none of that will go down well. It will all make a rebranding—back to populism—more difficult to appear convincing. The MAGA base isn’t enough. We’re talking about regaining the trust of voters who no longer trust either party. Those are the people who got him back into the White House, and they’re also the people who are now disillusioned with him and either stayed home are voted Dem.

This is tough news for the Congressional GOPers. I don’t see them being able to rebrand their party for 2026.

Robert Barnes @barnes_law

A few notes on the election. A massive alarm for the GOP.

First, this was a nationalized election. Candidate quality didn’t matter. Candidate spending didn’t matter. Local issues didn’t matter. Incumbent history didn’t matter. Individual scandals didn’t matter. It swept in blue areas, swing areas, and red areas equally alike. The wave hit Pennsylvania judicial races, Georgia public service commission race, and Virginia state legislative races as much as the higher profile races in blue areas. The wave crested like a tsunami, felt coast to coast, from the northeast to the southwest, from the midatlantic to the mountains, from the industrial midwest to the southern countryside.

Second, new #MAGA completely switched back off, either staying home or flipping their votes to Democrats. See hispanic precincts pretty much anywhere, the youth vote, and working class areas in general. You know who they voted for in NYC? Mamdani.

Third, the NYC race reveals the populist rebellion reaches deep w/in Democratic ranks as well, as the upstart Mamdani — promising to tax big corporations & the rich to give universal benefits in housing, healthcare, transportation, and the cost of food — swept the young working class vote across most of the city.

Fourth, Israel is a losing issue, signified when NYC, the most Jewish city in the nation, chooses a Muslim Mayor promising to arrest Bibi if he steps foot into the city. Israel is rapidly becoming a political pariah in America, and no amount of whining about it from the pro-Israel community will change that; only a reversal of policy by Bibi can mitigate this. Ackman understood this, which is why he spent the election panicking.

Fifth, there is still time for Trump to salvage 2026. The 12 point swing in 2021 did not lead to as big a sweep in 2022 as many expected. The key is which party spends the next year persuading working class voters they can, and will, provide solutions to the problems of bread-and-butter that they face. The better economic populist pitch will win over these voters in 2026 & 2028, with these voters deeply skeptical of both parties.

11:50 AM · Nov 5, 2025