Testing travelers from China is a useless intervention
December 31 | Posted by mrossol | Critical Thinking, Mandates, ScienceSource: Testing travelers from China is a useless intervention
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Just this week, the United States announced that we would be requiring a PCR or antigen-based test from all travelers from China. This policy is demonstrably incorrect. It is wasteful, discriminatory, harmful, and offers no upside to the American people. Even the CDC director acknowledges how foolish it is. She admits it can’t stop the spread of variants.
She writes
Her statement contains factual errors. She has no evidence it will even ‘slow’ variants. That is a lie, and reflects ignorance about the policy. Consider the facts.
The US policy allows an antigen self test. (see specific wording)
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Antigen testing has been proven to have a high rate of FALSE NEGATIVES in the early phase of the disease. Thus, the test will not be able to stop contagious travelers. It will likely do nothing to ‘slow’ spread.
Second, the test imposes logistic hurdles. It will interfere with many people’s plans. There are huge downsides to disrupting travel, the CDC director blindly ignores.
Third, the CDC director has no evidence that it will slow the spread of the virus. We will return to this point. But it is dangerous to say things without evidence.
Fourth, the policy goes into effect Jan 5. This just incentivizes people to come before the deadline. All travel policies have been like this (advertise the moment of implementation). They may even accelerate spread b/c they create panic and crowding just before the deadline.
Fifth, there is no longer any value to slowing variant spread. In the absence of a new variant with 100 fold increase the death rate over current strains, no one in America will care. We have resolved ourselves to either (a) returning to normal – 97% of us (b) complaining about covid shrinking neurons and crying for mask mandates in kids (3%) of us.
Sixth, the EU even says the USA is wrong
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A final note. This CDC director has done a bad job. Part of the problem is that she has decided to work remotely, which is no way to run a department, and a hallmark of a failed leader. But worse, she has never tried to use science to help her decision making.
I get it: there will always be people who think you are too aggressive, and those who think you are too passive. But if you’re the CDC director, there’s a simple way to settle it: you run trials.
Science is not an opinion. It’s a series of facts about the world. Question: if you mandate masking in schools, do you slow the spread of RSV, covid and influenza, and more importantly, months later, are kids better off as a result? The null hypothesis is that you don’t slow the spread, and you just waste everyone’s time.
Although the CDC director has made many recommendations, she has never, not once, not a single time, run study to test if the recommendation works. Not even 1 time!
Not for 3 ft versus 6 ft of distancing. Not for quarantine rules. Not for testing policies. Not for masking. Not for boosting. Not for anything.
How can anyone think that’s doing a good job?
How can anyone think this is how a scientist should behave?
How can anyone defend the proposition that the right number of randomized studies for non-pharmacological interventions is zero?
That’s exactly how many that Tony Fauci, who controls the NIAID budget, and Rochelle Walensky who runs the CDC, ran. That is a stunning legacy and reflects their total failure as scientists.
Now CDC director is back defending a foolish policy that the EU condemns.
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