Better in their words…

BLUF: September 30th looms large, as the Federal Government struggles to come up with a budget. Could a shutdown be the pre-planned catalyst for civil unrest?

Introduction:

In a prior note I’d speculated that a purposeful government shutdown would stop funding to many on subsistence programs and thereby act as a catalyst (combined with a choreographed Information Operation, agent provocateurs and possibly another event) to stimulate mass social unrest.

The Straight Juice 15h Is a Government Shutdown the Path to Social Unrest? The rhetoric regarding a possible government shutdown has intensified, leading to a speculative hypothesis – an allowed shutdown could act as the catalyst for ‘Civil War.’ Headlines & Snippets: House Republicans reject their own funding bill with a shutdown around the corner (NBC) Thirteen days before money runs out for the federal government, there is still no… https://www.google.com/amp/s/cbs6albany.com/amp/news/local/as-government-shutdown-looms-lawmakers-weigh-in-on-save-act-proposals 5 1

This article examines the numbers of people that would likely affected, and takes into account the possible duration of a shutdown, present economic conditions and challenges, as well as numerous social factors, to speculate on the possible outcome – chaos and social disorder.

Charts:

The following charts analyze the potential fallout of a federal government shutdown on various vulnerable groups, considering several key inputs. These include the current economic landscape characterized by rising inflation, decreased middle-class purchasing power, and significant increases in living costs, such as food and housing. Additionally, the analysis factors in the unprecedented migration levels and associated pressures on local resources, as well as the rising crime rates influenced by changes in law enforcement policies. The charts reflect how these conditions can lead to heightened food insecurity, financial distress, and social unrest, particularly as the shutdown prolongs. By synthesizing these elements, the charts provide a comprehensive overview of the likely impact on affected populations.

Past federal government shutdowns and duration.

Estimated number of migrants on assistance.

Estimated effects of a prolonged federal government shutdown.

[Analyst note: graphs were created by AI with my selected data inputs, and a combination of AI and personally researched sources – see references below.]

Civil Unrest Has Long Been Planned:

Civil unrest in the United States appears to have been meticulously planned, as evidenced by numerous think tank reports and tabletop exercises conducted at federal, state, and local levels. Many of these scenarios are tied to the upcoming April 8th solar eclipse, suggesting a timeline for potential crises. Concurrently, there is ongoing legislative momentum toward nationalizing 911 dispatch services and calls for establishing a federal police force, reflecting a shift in public safety strategies. Changes in immigration policies have led to unprecedented migration, including the entry of criminal elements, compounding societal pressures. The “defund the police” movement, coupled with vaccine mandates that have reduced law enforcement personnel, further destabilizes community safety. Funding from organizations like the Open Society Foundation has enabled district attorneys to adopt softer approaches to crime, while sanctuary city laws provide havens for criminal activity. Additionally, zero bail laws and mass prisoner releases during the COVID-19 pandemic have contributed to a landscape increasingly characterized by unrest. Together, these factors paint a picture of a society primed for upheaval, raising concerns about the potential for widespread civil disorder.

Predictive Programming:

The information operation surrounding civil unrest and potential civil war has been prominently featured across mainstream media, alternative platforms, and social media, suggesting a coordinated effort to condition and prime the public through predictive programming. This pervasive narrative shapes perceptions and expectations, reflecting a broader strategy that goes beyond mere reporting. From an occult perspective, this can be viewed as a broadcasting ritual aimed at manifesting a desired reality through the use of occult memetics. By embedding specific themes and imagery into popular culture and public discourse, those in power may be attempting to stimulate a collective mindset that aligns with their objectives, thus influencing the trajectory of societal events and unrest.

CIVIL UNREST:

1. The Threat of Civil Breakdown Is Real – This article from POLITICO discusses the increasing threat of political violence and civil breakdown as the 2024 election approaches.
2. ‘Underanticipated’ US Civil War Concerns Increase – American Military News highlights a study showing growing concerns about a potential U.S. civil war, even among neighboring countries like Canada.
3. Will the World See More Wars or Unrest in 2024? – ABC News explores regions where civil conflicts or unrest could worsen and potentially lead to violence.
4. There Is a Risk of Extremist Violence Around the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election – A report from the Council on Foreign Relations warns of the possibility of extremist violence throughout the election cycle.
5. The Most Dangerous Time in 2024 Will Be Just After the Election – Slate discusses the heightened risk of violence and vigilantism following the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

BLACK SWAN:

1. What is a Black Swan event and should I be worried? – This article from azcentral.com explains the concept of Black Swan events and discusses their historical context, including the 2007-2009 financial crisis.
2. ‘Black Swan’ events are not so rare – An analysis by ABC News explores whether we could have predicted events like COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine, and discusses the increasing frequency of such events.
3. Improving DOD Adaptability and Capability to Survive Black Swan Events – This article from ndupress.ndu.edu examines how the Department of Defense can better prepare for and adapt to Black Swan events.

ECONOMIC CRISIS:

1. Recession 2024: What to Watch and How to Prepare – This article from U.S. News outlines the warning signs and risk factors for a potential recession in 2024, including inflation and labor market conditions.
2. Is the U.S. headed for a recession? Here’s what the experts say. – CBS News provides insights from economists on the likelihood of a recession in the U.S., highlighting recent economic indicators and their implications.
3. How to prepare for a new economic reality and protect the most vulnerable – The World Economic Forum discusses the global economic outlook and the potential impact of a recession on inequality.

GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN:

1. Government shutdown looms after House vote – A from USA Today covers the latest developments in the House of Representatives as they vote on measures to prevent a government shutdown.
2. Are we headed for a government shutdown? – This article explores the current political climate and the likelihood of a government shutdown, analyzing the key factors at play.
3. A government shutdown: HHS has a plan – Politico Pulse discusses the contingency plans that the Department of Health and Human Services has in place in the event of a government shutdown.
4. House rejects bill aimed at averting government shutdown – MSN reports on the recent rejection of a bill in the House that was intended to prevent a government shutdown, detailing the implications of this decision.

Intelligence Analysis:

A potential federal government shutdown in a highly contentious election year presents a significant risk for increased crime and social unrest. Several intersecting factors exacerbate this situation, including unprecedented levels of migration, inflationary pressures, and growing economic distress among the population.

Key Conditions Contributing to Increased Crime and Unrest:

• Contentious Election Year: The political climate is already polarized, with heightened tensions among various factions. This divisiveness is likely to amplify discontent during a government shutdown, leading to protests and potentially violent clashes.
• Unprecedented Migration: An estimated ten million (plus) recent migrants, many of whom come from countries with high crime rates, may further strain local resources. Reports indicate that some migrants released from prison in their home countries could pose an increased risk of criminal activity. Furthermore, the preponderance of these immigrants are male, aged 18-30, which is one of the top demographics for criminality (IQ also plays a factor, see note). The reliance on migrant subsidies adds to local economic pressures, potentially causing resentment among native populations.

  [Analyst note: the number illegal crossings has varied, and often doesn’t take into account those who have crossed undetected or those who have flown in and overstayed their visas. The numbers range from 10 million residing in the US to almost 30 million.¹²³⁴]

  The Straight Juice 3mo Low IQ and Crime – Hidden Causes of Crime May Include Divided Homes, Toxins, Poisoned Foods: Low IQ has been linked to higher crime rates through various pathways that include socioeconomic factors, educational attainment, and cognitive abilities influencing decision-making and impulse control. Deeper than this, and more likely causative factors, are ongoing governmental programs designed to reduce IQ, making… https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30058504/ 3 2

• Inflation and Economic Distress:
  • Cost of Living: Food prices have more than doubled, while home costs have nearly quadrupled. Car and insurance costs have also surged.
  • Savings and Debt: With savings at historic lows and debt at unprecedented highs, including high levels of credit card debt, many individuals face severe financial pressure. The significant increase in rents and mortgages since the last shutdown adds to this burden, leading to desperation among those unable to meet their obligations.
  • Rising Crime Rates: Although crime has risen over recent years, the lack of comprehensive data from the FBI complicates the assessment of the current situation. The decline in crime reporting from large and medium-sized cities raises concerns about underreported incidents, particularly as communities grapple with rising violence and theft.

    [Analyst note: The U.S. employs two distinct measures of crime. The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program tracks the number of crimes reported to police each year. In contrast, the Bureau of Justice Statistics conducts the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), which interviews 240,000 individuals annually to determine whether they have experienced a crime. This survey aims to estimate the total incidence of crime, both reported and unreported. In 2022, it revealed that only 42% of violent crimes and 32% of property crimes were reported to authorities.

    Since 2020, there has been a notable divergence between the FBI’s reported crime statistics and the NCVS findings. For instance, while the FBI reported a 2.1% decline in violent crime from 2021 to 2022, the NCVS indicated a significant increase of 29.3% in the same category.⁵⁶⁷]

  • Media Influence: The divisive rhetoric from mainstream and alternative media outlets can exacerbate tensions, inciting fear, anger, and distrust. This environment could lead to social unrest, as groups mobilize around perceived injustices, whether related to economic issues or immigration policies.

Potential Black Swan Events:

Unforeseen events, such as power outages, mass internet disruptions, or major geopolitical conflicts, could exacerbate tensions, limit access to resources, and increase vulnerability.

October Surprise – Black Swan Event Incoming?

THE STRAIGHT JUICE · SEP 6

“The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Read full story

Conclusion:

A federal government shutdown, likely to occur after the upcoming election, coincides with several concurrent developments that could create a perfect storm for unrest. Rising inflation has severely diminished the middle class’s ability to afford basic necessities, while increased migration places additional strain on already limited resources. Cities most affected are those with soft laws, defunded police departments, sanctuary status, and high numbers of subsidized migrants. At the same time, crime rates are climbing, exacerbated by reductions in police funding, new district attorneys adopting lenient policies, zero bail laws, and sanctuary city protections.

Further complicating this landscape are extensive federal, state, and local preparations—ongoing for up to two years—for the April 8th solar eclipse, which have involved significant equipment purchases and the militarization of federal forces. Major think tanks have forecast civil unrest, highlighting high levels of societal priming, conditioning, and predictive programming that suggest an impending crisis.

In this context, a government shutdown that cuts off support to vulnerable populations could act as a catalyst for hunger and social chaos. With the spigot that provides for the most needy turned off, the potential for widespread unrest and instability shifts from likely to inevitable.

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REFERENCES & FURTHER READING:

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/government-shutdown-military/

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/07/19/what-the-data-says-about-food-stamps-in-the-u-s/

https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2024-09-11/explainer-us-government-shutdown-what-closes-what-stays-open

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2022/jan/31/facebook-posts/fact-checking-claim-about-immigrants-eligibility-a/

https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-illegal-2200-payment-government-821946727757

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2024/09/09/as-congress-returns-to-dc-so-does-the-threat-of-a-federal-shutdown/

https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3537045/with-government-shutdown-troops-still-protect-nation-but-possibly-without-pay/

https://www.dhs.gov/news/2023/08/21/dhs-announces-distribution-more-77-million-congressional-funding-communities

https://nlihc.org/sites/default/files/FY19_Shutdown_Factsheet.pdf

https://immigration.uslegal.com/eligibility/state-by-state-guide-to-government-benefits-for-immigrants/

https://blog.remitly.com/immigration/federal-and-state-programs-for-immigrant-business-owners/

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2184

http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/11/ImmigrantAccess/Eligibility/ib.shtml

https://immigrationforum.org/article/fact-sheet-undocumented-immigrants-and-federal-health-care-benefits/

https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2022/09/08/new-rule-makes-clear-noncitizens-who-receive-health-or-other-benefits-which-they-are-entitled-will-not-suffer-harmful-immigration-consequences.html

https://www.uscis.gov/citizenship/civic-integration/learn-about-the-citizenship-and-integration-grant-program

https://www.commonwealthfund.org/blog/2024/states-expand-access-affordable-private-coverage-immigrant-populations

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government-shutdown-house-vote-continuing-resolution-save-act/

https://thehill.com/business/budget/4856504-congress-government-shutdown-complications/

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/house-rejects-speaker-johnson-s-government-funding-bill-as-shutdown-deadline-nears/ar-AA1qOc6a

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/will-congress-dodge-a-government-shutdown-funding-push-fails-in-the-house-over-controversial-voting-bill/ar-AA1qNEXa

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/us-government-partial-government-shutdown-deadline-funding-midnight-rcna144746

List of George Soros Owned District Attorneys

https://dailycaller.com/2020/08/10/district-attorneys-soros-chicago-philadelphia-suffolk-san-francisco/

https://needtoknow.news/2023/11/california-soros-backed-district-attorney-gets-robbed-becomes-victim-of-her-own-system/

https://nypost.com/2023/07/01/soros-open-society-foundations-to-gut-staff-40/

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defund_the_police

OPERATION DEFUND POLICE: A Cultural Marxist Conspiracy to Destroy Law and Order in America

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/08/us/what-does-defund-police-mean.html

What does ‘defund the police’ mean and does it have merit?

https://247wallst.com/special-report/2023/12/16/22-cities-that-defunded-police-and-their-current-crime-rates/

https://www.npr.org/sections/live-updates-protests-for-racial-justice/2020/06/26/884149659/minneapolis-council-moves-to-defund-police-establish-holistic-public-safety-forc

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/defund-the-police-meaning/

https://www.naturalnews.com/2022-01-02-prisoners-released-because-of-covid.html

https://www.foxnews.com/us/here-is-how-many-prisoners-have-been-released-covid-19

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/covid-19-prisoner-releases-not-mercy-but-justice/

https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/prisoners-released-from-facilities-to-limit-covid-19-spread-arrested-again-for-crimes

https://www.breitbart.com/border/2022/09/18/exclusive-venezuela-empties-prisons-sends-violent-criminals-to-u-s-says-dhs-report/

https://thepostmillennial.com/violent-venezuelan-criminals-join-illegal-immigrant-caravans-after-release-from-prison-report

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2022/09/21/criminals-us-border-n2613385

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/09/americas/nicaragua-political-prisoners-intl-latam/index.html

https://www.state.gov/afghan-arrivals-under-the-u-s-refugee-admissions-program/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11955155/Afghan-refugees-rescued-brought-accused-racist-sexist-tasked-helping.html